BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −37% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$126.80. What would overturn this: a close below US$88.86 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$88.80 – US$126.80 Falling channel, −37% a year
- Position in that channel
- 48% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because its projected path only reaches 4.6% above the entry within 90 days, under the 6.0% floor a call has to clear to be worth making. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy at or below
US$88.78
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$114.11
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
28.5%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 77%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its various subsidiaries, furnishes crucial technological infrastructure and extensive marketing channels. This comprehensive support allows merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to effectively engage with their customer base, both within the People's Republic of China and across international markets. The company's operations are organized across seven primary segments: China Commerce, International Commerce, Local Consumer Services, Cainiao (its logistics network), Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The company's extensive digital ecosystem features premier online retail platforms like Taobao and Tmall. Wholesale business-to-business transactions are facilitated through 1688.com and Alibaba.com. Globally, it operates retail platforms such as AliExpress, Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz. For fresh goods and groceries, it offers Freshippo, and Tmall Global specializes in import e-commerce. Monetization and advertising solutions are provided via Alimama, its proprietary platform, which offers diverse marketing services including pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display ads, supported by the Taobao Ad Network and Exchange for real-time bidding. Logistics operations are primarily handled by the Cainiao Network. Its local consumer services encompass Ele.me for on-demand food and delivery, Koubei for restaurant and local service directories, and Fliggy for travel booking. Alibaba Cloud offers a wide array of services, including elastic computing, data storage, networking, security, database management, big data analytics, and Internet of Things (IoT) solutions. It also supplies hardware, software licenses, installation, and application development and maintenance. The digital media and entertainment division includes Youku, an online video platform; Quark, an information search and content consumption tool; and Alibaba Pictures, collectively offering diverse content spanning films, live events, news feeds, literature, and music. Its innovation portfolio further extends to Amap, a mobile application for digital mapping and navigation; DingTalk, a business communication and efficiency platform; the Tmall Genie smart speaker; and Qwen, an advanced artificial intelligence chatbot. Founded in 1999, Alibaba Group is headquartered in Hangzhou, People's Republic of China.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- Yongming Wu
- Employees
- 132,165
- Country
- CN
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- 64/100
- Profitability
- 20/100
- Financial health
- 47/100
- Cash generation
- 11/100
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$285.99B
- Enterprise value
- US$2.10T
- Beta
- 0.51
- Avg volume
- 12.15M
- Revenue per share
- 447.25
- Dividend yield
- 0.84%
- 52-week range
- 91.99-192.67
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- 27.20
- PEG
- -0.53
- Price / sales
- 1.93
- Price / book
- 1.87
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.15
- Gross margin
- 38.14%
- Operating margin
- 4.21%
- Net margin
- 7.04%
- Current ratio
- 1.36
- Quick ratio
- 1.36
- Debt / equity
- 0.25
- Interest cover
- 4.42
Income statement
| Year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$1.02T | US$407.53B | US$59.66B | US$103.59B | US$44.00 |
| 2025 | US$996.35B | US$398.06B | US$140.91B | US$130.11B | US$53.60 |
| 2024 | US$941.17B | US$354.85B | US$113.35B | US$80.01B | US$31.36 |
| 2023 | US$868.69B | US$318.99B | US$100.35B | US$72.78B | US$27.44 |
| 2022 | US$853.06B | US$313.61B | US$69.64B | US$62.25B | US$22.72 |
Balance sheet
| Year | Total assets | Total liabilities | Total equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$1.90T | US$780.37B | US$1.06T |
| 2025 | US$1.81T | US$715.21B | US$1.01T |
| 2024 | US$1.77T | US$652.46B | US$986.89B |
| 2023 | US$1.75T | US$630.33B | US$990.03B |
| 2022 | US$1.70T | US$614.25B | US$949.90B |
Cash flow
| Year | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$76.21B | -US$50.72B | US$102.13B |
| 2025 | US$164.82B | US$78.16B | US$130.51B |
| 2024 | US$184.01B | US$150.82B | US$80.36B |
| 2023 | US$199.90B | US$165.52B | US$72.56B |
| 2022 | US$140.39B | US$87.95B | US$60.93B |
EPS forecasts
| Period | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$33.36 | US$1.02T | 18 |
| 2027 | US$43.63 | US$1.13T | 17 |
| 2028 | US$62.27 | US$1.27T | 18 |
| 2029 | US$79.78 | US$1.45T | 15 |
| 2030 | US$73.69 | US$1.65T | 6 |
| 2031 | US$0.0000 | US$1.83T | 7 |
Analyst view
- Target (mean)
- US$183.17
- Target (high)
- US$209.00
- Target (low)
- US$160.00
- Strong buy
- 0
- Buy
- 51
- Hold
- 7
- Sell
- 1
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.