AZN AstraZeneca PLC
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Healthcare. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the sell zone (provisional)
Price has run up to the upper trend line — the level it has repeatedly stalled at.
Read from the last 7 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −34% a year. Price is above both fitted ceilings, so there is no line overhead to break — and no fitted resistance to price the target against either. What would overturn this: a close below US$155.64 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 7 months read from
- US$155.64 – US$162.23 Falling channel, −34% a year
- Position in that channel
- 110% above the ceiling of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
Provisional: fitted to a short history, so treat the lines as a first read rather than a projection. No trade is suggested and alerts stay off until there is more data.
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -25% from US$207.0927 Feb 2026 → 4 Aug 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 1 Pharmaceutical Preparations peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 15%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 88% of 1041 comparable falls came back, typically in 66 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 25% from 207.09 to 154.49 by August 2026, and has regained 15% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Lung Cancer Research Foundation Launches Small Cell Lung Cancer Grants Worth $750K In Collaboration With AstraZeneca”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 25% here have come back to the old high 88% of the time (1041 comparable falls), typically in 66 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 209.23 within 266 days, reached 88% of the time in 1041 comparable falls — about 0.11% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Lung Cancer Research Foundation Launches Small Cell Lung Cancer Grants Worth $750K In Collaboration With AstraZeneca — 24 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (7 months)
- Lower trend line (7 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
The lines above are fitted to a short history, which is not a base we will project a published call from. The buy and target below are still this site's read of those lines.
Buy at or below
US$162.22
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$209.23
by 9 June 2027
Projected move
29.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
- Upper line touches
- 6
- Lower line touches
- 7
- Fit confidence
- 54%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.