AXP American Express Company
American Express Company (AXP) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 7 comparable calls have settled; 71.4% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 2 years of history we hold: rising, drifting +13% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$437.77. What would overturn this: a close below US$332.83 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years read from
- US$332.83 – US$437.77 Rising channel, +13% a year
- Position in that channel
- -21% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -24% from US$381.7411 Dec 2025 → 27 Mar 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company2 of 6 Financial - Credit Services peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 22%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 90% of 8 comparable falls came back, typically in 127 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in December 2025: price fell 24% from 381.74 to 290.73 by March 2026, and has regained 22% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Wolfe Research Assumes American Express at Peer Perform”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 24% here have come back to the old high 90% of the time (8 comparable falls), typically in 127 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 384.11 within 623 days, reached 90% of the time in 8 comparable falls — about 0.04% a day held.
Reported at the time: Wolfe Research Assumes American Express at Peer Perform — 8 Dec 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because price has broken 6.5% below the channel floor, which is a fall out of the trend rather than a dip within it. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$311.20
last close · 17 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$332.83; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$458.54
by 17 Dec 2026
Projected move
47.3%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 7 settled calls, of which 5 reached target (71.4%), with an average best move of 6.9%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 42%
- Fitted
- 18 Sept 2026
About American Express Company
Operating globally, American Express Company and its affiliated entities deliver a comprehensive suite of charge and credit payment card solutions, alongside a variety of travel-related offerings. Its business structure is organized into three primary divisions: the Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. Among its core offerings are diverse payment and financing instruments, robust network infrastructure services, tools for managing accounts payable expenses, and comprehensive travel and lifestyle support. Furthermore, it facilitates merchant services such as acquisition, transaction processing, settlement, and point-of-sale marketing, providing vital information and assistance to businesses. The company also specializes in fraud mitigation and developing and managing customer loyalty initiatives. These products and services are made available to a broad clientele, encompassing individual consumers, small and mid-sized enterprises, and large corporate entities. Distribution channels include digital platforms (mobile and online applications), collaborations with third-party vendors and partners, direct communication methods like mail and telephone, dedicated internal sales forces, and direct response advertising campaigns. Established in 1850, American Express Company maintains its corporate headquarters in New York, New York.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Financial - Credit Services
- CEO
- Stephen Joseph Squeri
- Employees
- 76,800
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$220.92B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.05
- Avg volume
- 2.98M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 290.97-387.49
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.