AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Industrials. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, falling on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 18 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (54% against 51%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 18 months stay as context: falling, −28% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$638.93, from the last 18 months. What would overturn this: a close below US$487.45 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$487.90 – US$638.93 Falling channel, −28% a year
- Position in that channel
- -12% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -60% from US$869.997 Aug 2025 → 10 Apr 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 13 Aerospace & Defense peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 23%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 62% of 11 comparable falls came back, typically in 80 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in August 2025: price fell 60% from 869.99 to 345.65 by April 2026, and has regained 23% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Axon Enterprise Q2 Adj. EPS $2.12 Beats $1.46 Estimate, Sales $669.00M Beat $641.24M Estimate”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 60% here have come back to the old high 62% of the time (11 comparable falls), typically in 80 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 891.82 within 559 days, reached 62% of the time in 11 comparable falls — about 0.16% a day held.
Reported at the time: Axon Enterprise Q2 Adj. EPS $2.12 Beats $1.46 Estimate, Sales $669.00M Beat $641.24M Estimate — 4 Aug 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because price has broken 4.2% below the channel floor, which is a fall out of the trend rather than a dip within it. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$468.42
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$488.07; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$608.30
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
29.9%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
- Upper line touches
- 6
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 51%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Axon Enterprise, Inc., founded in 1993 and headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, was previously known as TASER International, Inc. until its rebranding in April 2017. The company specializes in the development, production, and sale of conducted energy devices (CEDs) marketed under its well-known TASER brand, catering to both domestic and international clients. Axon's operations are divided into two primary segments: TASER, and Software and Sensors. In addition to its signature TASER devices, such as the TASER 7, X26P, X2, and consumer models, along with their corresponding cartridges, Axon offers an extensive portfolio of hardware and cloud-based software. These solutions are designed to equip law enforcement agencies with the means to capture, securely archive, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. Key products in this category include on-officer body cameras, Axon Fleet in-car systems, the Axon Evidence digital evidence management platform, Axon Signal-enabled devices, extended hardware warranties, and vital accessories like docks, cartridges, and batteries. Axon distributes its offerings through multiple channels, including its dedicated direct sales force, various distribution partners, its online storefront, and authorized third-party resellers. Furthermore, the company has established a strategic partnership with Fusus, Inc. to enhance the functionality of Axon Respond and the Fusus Real Time Crime Center in the Cloud solution, providing agencies with real-time operational awareness and more efficient investigative processes.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- Patrick W. Smith
- Employees
- 5,100
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$41.56B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.40
- Avg volume
- 1.06M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 339.01-792.16
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.