ASML ASML Holding N.V.
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 6 comparable calls have settled; 100% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone, rising on both timeframes
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 9 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (55% against 62%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 9 months stay as context: rising, +70% a year. The target of US$2,009 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$1,830, from the last 9 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$1,684 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months
- US$1,637 – US$1,830 Rising channel, +70% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$1,684 – US$1,972 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- -2% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -22% from US$1,98630 June 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector15 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 18%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 96% of 55 comparable falls came back, typically in 56 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 22% from 1985.65 to 1551.00 by July 2026, and has regained 18% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 15 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “If You Invested $100 In ASML Holding Stock 15 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 22% here have come back to the old high 96% of the time (55 comparable falls), typically in 56 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 2009.03 within 249 days, reached 96% of the time in 55 comparable falls — about 0.09% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: If You Invested $100 In ASML Holding Stock 15 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today — 29 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$1,629
level as at 18 Sept 2026
Our target
US$2,009
by 25 May 2027
Projected move
23.3%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 22% from 1985.65 to 1551.00 by July 2026, and has regained 18% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 15 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “If You Invested $100 In ASML Holding Stock 15 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 22% here have come back to the old high 96% of the time (55 comparable falls), typically in 56 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 2009.03 within 249 days, reached 96% of the time in 55 comparable falls — about 0.09% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 55 comparable falls in Semiconductors, 96% were back at the old high within 56 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 7% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 1985.65 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 6 settled calls, of which 6 reached target (100%), with an average best move of 10.9%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 62%
- Fitted
- 18 Sept 2026
About ASML Holding N.V.
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Christophe D. Fouquet
- Employees
- 43,938
- Country
- NL
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$672.80B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.36
- Avg volume
- 1.82M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 716.2-1999.96
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.