ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (ARM) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 9 months of history we hold: rising, drifting more than +100% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$359.87. What would overturn this: a close below US$270.62 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$270.62 – US$359.87 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- -30% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -49% from US$439.1918 June 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company11 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 8%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 76% of 49 comparable falls came back, typically in 143 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 49% from 439.19 to 224.63 by July 2026, and has regained 8% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “New Street Research Downgrades ARM Holdings to Neutral”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 49% here have come back to the old high 76% of the time (49 comparable falls), typically in 143 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 446.45 within 572 days, reached 76% of the time in 49 comparable falls — about 0.15% a day held.
Reported at the time: New Street Research Downgrades ARM Holdings to Neutral — 18 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because price has broken 10.2% below the channel floor, which is a fall out of the trend rather than a dip within it. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$244.26
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$270.81; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$539.91
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
121.0%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 68%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
Arm Holdings plc is a leading technology firm that conceptualizes, engineers, and licenses core processing unit (CPU) designs and complementary technologies. These foundational innovations are crucial for semiconductor manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to develop their own products. The company's diverse portfolio encompasses microprocessors, comprehensive system intellectual property (IP) solutions, graphics processing units (GPUs), physical IP alongside its associated system IPs, various software offerings, development tools, and an array of supplementary services. Its technology underpins a wide spectrum of industries, including the automotive sector, advanced computing infrastructure, consumer electronics, and the burgeoning Internet of Things (IoT) landscape. Established in 1990, Arm Holdings plc maintains its corporate headquarters in Cambridge, United Kingdom. With a significant global footprint, Arm conducts operations across the United States, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, South Korea, and numerous other international regions. Currently, Arm Holdings plc functions as a subsidiary entity of Kronos II LLC.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Rene Anthony Andrada Haas
- Employees
- 9,584
- Country
- GB
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$258.27B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 3.89
- Avg volume
- 8.44M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 100.02-452.7
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.