APH Amphenol Corporation
Amphenol Corporation (APH) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, rising on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +23% a year. The target of US$180.25 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$173.80), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$112.57 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$112.55 – US$173.80 Rising channel, +23% a year
- Position in that channel
- -58% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -56% from US$176.3730 June 2026 → 16 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company2 of 6 Hardware, Equipment & Parts peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 70% of 8 comparable falls came back, typically in 136 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 56% from 176.37 to 77.13 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “If You Invested $1000 In Amphenol Stock 5 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 56% here have come back to the old high 70% of the time (8 comparable falls), typically in 136 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 180.25 within 135 days, reached 70% of the time in 8 comparable falls — about 0.99% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: If You Invested $1000 In Amphenol Stock 5 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today — 30 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$77.13
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$180.25
by 29 Jan 2027
Projected move
133.7%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 56% from 176.37 to 77.13 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “If You Invested $1000 In Amphenol Stock 5 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 56% here have come back to the old high 70% of the time (8 comparable falls), typically in 136 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 180.25 within 135 days, reached 70% of the time in 8 comparable falls — about 0.99% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 8 comparable falls in Hardware, Equipment & Parts, 70% were back at the old high within 136 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 17% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 176.37 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 56%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Amphenol Corporation
Amphenol Corporation, alongside its numerous subsidiaries, operates globally as a prominent designer, manufacturer, and distributor of electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various international territories. The company is organized into three primary operational divisions: Harsh Environment Solutions, Communications Solutions, and Interconnect and Sensor Systems. Amphenol's comprehensive product lineup features an extensive array of connectors and integrated connector systems. These include specialized interconnects engineered for demanding conditions (covering data, power, high-speed, fiber optic, and radio frequency applications), in addition to busbars and complete power distribution systems. Beyond these core offerings, the company provides value-added products such as backplane interconnect systems, bespoke cable assemblies and harnesses, and cable management solutions. Their portfolio also encompasses flexible and rigid printed circuit boards (PCBs), hinges, and various other mechanical and production-related components. Furthermore, Amphenol supplies antennas for consumer electronics, network infrastructure, and other uses; a range of coaxial, power, and specialty cables; and an assortment of sensors and sensor-based technologies. The company distributes its products through a multi-channel approach, utilizing its internal sales force, independent representatives, and an extensive network of electronics distributors. Its diverse customer base comprises original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), electronic manufacturing services (EMS) providers, original design manufacturers (ODMs), and service providers. These clients span numerous industries, including automotive, broadband communication, commercial aerospace, industrial, information technology and data communication, military, mobile device, and mobile network markets. Amphenol Corporation was founded in 1932 and is presently headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- CEO
- Richard Adam Norwitt
- Employees
- 170,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$206.94B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.24
- Avg volume
- 10.00M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 58.67-89.26
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.