AMRZ Amrize Ltd
Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Basic Materials. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below (provisional)
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 7 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −43% a year. The target of US$65.81 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$50.59), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$46.61 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 7 months read from
- US$46.61 – US$50.59 Falling channel, −43% a year
- Position in that channel
- -206% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
Provisional: fitted to a short history, so treat the lines as a first read rather than a projection. No trade is suggested and alerts stay off until there is more data.
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -41% from US$64.9424 Feb 2026 → 16 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 77% of 895 comparable falls came back, typically in 86 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 41% from 64.94 to 38.28 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Amrize, Raises Price Target to $66”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 77% of the time (895 comparable falls), typically in 86 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 65.81 within 85 days, reached 77% of the time in 895 comparable falls — about 0.85% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Amrize, Raises Price Target to $66 — 19 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (7 months)
- Lower trend line (7 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
The lines above are fitted to a short history, which is not a base we will project a published call from. The buy and target below are still this site's read of those lines.
Buy at or below
US$38.29
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$65.81
by 10 Dec 2026
Projected move
71.9%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 47%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.