ABR Arbor Realty Trust
Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Real Estate. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 6 comparable calls have settled; 33.3% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone, falling on both timeframes
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −54% a year. The target of US$5.14 is below the nearest ceiling (US$7.91), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$4.18 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$4.18 – US$7.91 Falling channel, −54% a year
- Position in that channel
- 3% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -65% from US$12.6211 Nov 2024 → 17 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 1 REIT - Mortgage peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Unsettled too close to a coin toss on the record to call
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 49% of 451 comparable falls came back, typically in 155 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in November 2024: price fell 65% from 12.62 to 4.48 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Price Over Earnings Overview: Arbor Realty Trust”. What happens next is not settled: falls of about 65% here have come back to the old high 49% of the time (451 comparable falls), typically in 155 days, which is too close to a coin toss to price a recovery from.
Reported at the time: Price Over Earnings Overview: Arbor Realty Trust — 12 Nov 2024
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
We replayed these rules over this stock's own history and the target was reached on only 2 of 6 calls. Its swings do not respect the channel reliably enough for a published call, and no alerts are sent. The numbers below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$4.30
last close · 18 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$4.85; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$5.14
by 2 Oct 2026
Projected move
19.6%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 6 settled calls, of which 2 reached target (33.3%), with an average best move of 7.2%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 68%
- Fitted
- 18 Sept 2026
About Arbor Realty Trust
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. The company invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, real estate-related notes, and various mortgage-related securities. It also offers bridge financing products to borrowers who seek short-term capital to be used in an acquisition of property; financing products to borrowers looking to develop, acquire or refinance conventional, workforce and affordable single-family rental (SFR) housing; multifamily investors short-term floating-rate financing for new and construction-ready multifamily projects; and mezzanine financing in the form of loans that are subordinate to a conventional first mortgage loan and senior to the borrower’s equity in a transaction. In addition, the company provides financing by making preferred equity investments in entities that directly or indirectly own real property that are subordinate to a first mortgage loan; and invest in structured transactions, which are primarily comprised of joint ventures formed to acquire, develop and/or sell real estate-related assets. Further, it underwrites, originates, sells, and services financing loans underwritten using similar guidelines of existing agency loans sold to the government-sponsored enterprises; and long-term permanent fixed rate loans on SFR properties. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
- CEO
- Ivan Kaufman
- Employees
- 653
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$869.47M
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.12
- Avg volume
- 4.44M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 4.5-12.58
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.