XME State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Listed on ARCA. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, rising on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +23% a year. The target of US$134.17 is below the nearest ceiling (US$140.30), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$126.44 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$126.70 – US$140.46 Rising channel, +23% a year
- Position in that channel
- -128% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -26% from US$132.762 June 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 46%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 87% of 1080 comparable falls came back, typically in 66 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 26% from 132.76 to 97.58 by July 2026, and has regained 46% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Drop From Records As Rate-Hike Bets Build, Oil Climbs: Stock Market Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 26% here have come back to the old high 87% of the time (1080 comparable falls), typically in 66 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 134.17 within 60 days, reached 87% of the time in 1080 comparable falls — about 0.30% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Drop From Records As Rate-Hike Bets Build, Oil Climbs: Stock Market Today — 3 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$108.75
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$113.65; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$134.17
by 13 Nov 2026
Projected move
23.4%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 26% from 132.76 to 97.58 by July 2026, and has regained 46% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Drop From Records As Rate-Hike Bets Build, Oil Climbs: Stock Market Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 26% here have come back to the old high 87% of the time (1080 comparable falls), typically in 66 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 134.17 within 60 days, reached 87% of the time in 1080 comparable falls — about 0.30% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1080 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 87% were back at the old high within 66 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 9% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 132.76 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 56%
- Fitted
- 14 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.