VST Vistra Corp.
Vistra Corp. (VST) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Utilities. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 9 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (67% against 75%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 9 months stay as context: falling, −16% a year. The target of US$152.22 is below the nearest ceiling (US$165.75), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$134.12 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$134.11 – US$165.75 Falling channel, −16% a year
- Position in that channel
- 20% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -38% from US$217.0122 Sept 2025 → 19 May 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 3 Electric Services peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 7%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 79% of 991 comparable falls came back, typically in 83 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in September 2025: price fell 38% from 217.01 to 134.56 by May 2026, and has regained 7% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Vistra with Sector Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $256”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 38% here have come back to the old high 79% of the time (991 comparable falls), typically in 83 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 219.96 within 1542 days, reached 79% of the time in 991 comparable falls — about 0.04% a day held.
Reported at the time: Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Vistra with Sector Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $256 — 22 Sept 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$140.41
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$143.60; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$152.22
by 23 Sept 2026
Projected move
8.4%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 4 touches on the ceiling, 4 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 10 times so far, reaching target 90% of the time. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 14% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 6% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over 145 stretches of this stock’s own history, since the published entry itself is too rare here to size a target from, reached 92% of the time, typically in 8 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 75%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.