URNM.AX URNM
URNM (URNM.AX) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Listed on Australian Securities Exchange. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the sell zone, going sideways this year inside a falling 0.7700781473554034-year channel
Price has run up to the upper trend line — the level it has repeatedly stalled at.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (53% against 79%). The last 12 months stay as context: going sideways, +2% a year. The target of A$15.44 sits above the nearest ceiling (A$10.67, from the last 12 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below A$8.76 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- A$8.76 – A$10.22 Falling channel, −28% a year
- 12 months
- A$9.84 – A$10.67 Sideways channel, +2% a year
- Position in that channel
- 117% above the ceiling of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -39% from A$15.2428 Jan 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 20%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 78% of 931 comparable falls came back, typically in 85 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 39% from 15.24 to 9.23 by July 2026, and has regained 20% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 39% here have come back to the old high 78% of the time (931 comparable falls), typically in 85 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 15.44 within 118 days, reached 78% of the time in 931 comparable falls — about 0.40% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
A$10.46
level as at 27 Aug 2026
Our target
A$15.44
by 23 Dec 2026
Projected move
47.6%
gross, before costs
Price is at or below our buy level.
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 39% from 15.24 to 9.23 by July 2026, and has regained 20% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 39% here have come back to the old high 78% of the time (931 comparable falls), typically in 85 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 15.44 within 118 days, reached 78% of the time in 931 comparable falls — about 0.40% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 931 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 78% were back at the old high within 85 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 12% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 15.24 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 79%
- Fitted
- 27 Aug 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.