TSLA Tesla, Inc.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 4 comparable calls have settled; 50% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −21% a year. The target of US$372.85 is below the nearest ceiling (US$408.59), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$283.44 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$283.26 – US$408.59 Falling channel, −21% a year
- Position in that channel
- 60% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -39% from US$489.7916 Dec 2025 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 6 Auto - Manufacturers peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 31%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 78% of 954 comparable falls came back, typically in 85 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in December 2025: price fell 39% from 489.79 to 298.23 by July 2026, and has regained 31% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Elon Musk Says Trump Is 'Naturally Funny' While Recalling The Mamdani Moment — Blames This Innovation For 'Rotting People's Brains'”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 39% here have come back to the old high 78% of the time (954 comparable falls), typically in 85 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 496.32 within 118 days, reached 78% of the time in 954 comparable falls — about 0.33% a day held.
Reported at the time: Elon Musk Says Trump Is 'Naturally Funny' While Recalling The Mamdani Moment — Blames This Innovation For 'Rotting People's Brains' — 11 Dec 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$338.95
level as at 30 Sept 2026
Our target
US$372.85
by 12 Oct 2026
Projected move
10.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 3 touches on the ceiling, 3 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 7 times so far, reaching target 100% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 16% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 10% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over 146 stretches of this stock’s own history, since the published entry itself is too rare here to size a target from, reached 79% of the time, typically in 12 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 4 settled calls, of which 2 reached target (50%), with an average best move of 10.6%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 73%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Tesla, Inc.
Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various other international regions. The company's operations are primarily divided into two main segments: its Automotive business and its Energy Generation and Storage division. Within its Automotive division, Tesla not only provides a range of electric cars but also generates revenue from selling automotive regulatory credits. This segment further encompasses a variety of post-sale services, including non-warranty vehicle support, sales of pre-owned vehicles, various retail products, and car insurance offerings. Customers can acquire Tesla's sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct sales, purchases of used vehicles, or via in-app upgrades often facilitated by the extensive Tesla Supercharger network. The company supports these acquisitions with financing and leasing options. Furthermore, it ensures vehicle upkeep through its proprietary service centers and a fleet of mobile technicians, complemented by both standard and extended vehicle warranty programs. The Energy Generation and Storage segment focuses on the development, manufacturing, setup, sale, and rental of solar power systems and energy storage products, along with associated services. This caters to a diverse clientele, spanning residential users, commercial enterprises, industrial entities, and public utilities. Distribution channels include Tesla's online platform, physical stores, galleries, and a network of collaborative partners. The company also offers servicing and repairs for its energy products, including warranty support, and provides multiple financing avenues for those investing in its solar solutions. Founded in 2003, the corporation was initially named Tesla Motors, Inc., before officially rebranding to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Austin, Texas.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto - Manufacturers
- CEO
- Elon R. Musk
- Employees
- 134,785
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- 0/100
- Profitability
- 14/100
- Financial health
- 78/100
- Cash generation
- 28/100
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$1.41T
- Enterprise value
- US$1.41T
- Beta
- 1.84
- Avg volume
- 43.64M
- Revenue per share
- 32.01
- Dividend yield
- 0.00%
- 52-week range
- 297.38-498.83
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- 303.46
- PEG
- -8.08
- Price / sales
- 13.65
- Price / book
- 13.34
- EV / EBITDA
- 117.09
- Gross margin
- 18.85%
- Operating margin
- 4.22%
- Net margin
- 3.68%
- Current ratio
- 1.94
- Quick ratio
- 1.55
- Debt / equity
- 0.11
- Interest cover
- 13.09
Income statement
| Year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$94.83B | US$17.09B | US$4.36B | US$3.79B | US$1.08 |
| 2024 | US$97.69B | US$17.45B | US$7.08B | US$7.13B | US$2.04 |
| 2023 | US$96.77B | US$17.66B | US$8.89B | US$15.00B | US$4.31 |
| 2022 | US$81.46B | US$20.85B | US$13.66B | US$12.58B | US$3.62 |
| 2021 | US$53.82B | US$13.61B | US$6.52B | US$5.52B | US$1.63 |
Balance sheet
| Year | Total assets | Total liabilities | Total equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$137.81B | US$54.94B | US$82.14B |
| 2024 | US$122.07B | US$48.39B | US$72.91B |
| 2023 | US$106.62B | US$43.01B | US$62.63B |
| 2022 | US$82.34B | US$36.44B | US$44.70B |
| 2021 | US$62.13B | US$30.55B | US$30.19B |
Cash flow
| Year | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$14.75B | US$6.22B | US$3.85B |
| 2024 | US$14.92B | US$3.58B | US$7.13B |
| 2023 | US$13.26B | US$4.36B | US$15.00B |
| 2022 | US$14.72B | US$7.55B | US$12.58B |
| 2021 | US$11.50B | US$3.48B | US$5.52B |
EPS forecasts
| Period | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$1.66 | US$94.91B | 23 |
| 2026 | US$1.69 | US$106.22B | 25 |
| 2027 | US$2.27 | US$120.44B | 25 |
| 2028 | US$3.16 | US$142.71B | 20 |
| 2029 | US$7.38 | US$193.60B | 9 |
| 2030 | US$10.40 | US$239.71B | 9 |
Analyst view
- Target (mean)
- US$462.77
- Target (high)
- US$840.00
- Target (low)
- US$360.00
- Strong buy
- 0
- Buy
- 34
- Hold
- 33
- Sell
- 15
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.