SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Suggested path

Price sits between our buy level and our target.

The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 4 touches on the ceiling, 4 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 8 times so far, reaching target 63% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 8% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 6% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 11 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 82% of the time, typically in 30 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.

On this stock's own history these rules produced 3 settled calls, of which 3 reached target (100%), with an average best move of 6.9%. See the full record.

Upper line touches

4

Lower line touches

4

Fit confidence

73%

Fitted

14 Sept 2026