SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF
iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 18 months of history we hold: rising, drifting more than +100% a year. The target of US$662.65 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$601.04), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$374.67 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$374.67 – US$601.04 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- 56% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -29% from US$655.1722 June 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 33%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 86% of 1144 comparable falls came back, typically in 69 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 29% from 655.17 to 464.49 by July 2026, and has regained 33% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Why Is Micron Stock Gaining Wednesday?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 29% here have come back to the old high 86% of the time (1144 comparable falls), typically in 69 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 662.65 within 97 days, reached 86% of the time in 1144 comparable falls — about 0.26% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Why Is Micron Stock Gaining Wednesday? — 17 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$501.63
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$527.26; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$662.65
by 18 Dec 2026
Projected move
32.1%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 29% from 655.17 to 464.49 by July 2026, and has regained 33% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Why Is Micron Stock Gaining Wednesday?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 29% here have come back to the old high 86% of the time (1144 comparable falls), typically in 69 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 662.65 within 97 days, reached 86% of the time in 1144 comparable falls — about 0.26% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1144 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 86% were back at the old high within 69 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 10% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 655.17 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 52%
- Fitted
- 12 Sept 2026
About iShares Semiconductor ETF
SOXX is passively managed to provide concentrated exposure to the 30 largest US-listed semiconductor companies. This includes (i) manufacturers of materials with semiconductors that are used in electronic applications or in LED and OLED technology and (ii) providers of services or equipment associated with semiconductors. To be eligible for the index, companies must meet investability and liquidity requirements, including a minimum market-cap of $100 million. The index employs market-cap-weighting with a capping methodologythe weights of the top five securities are capped at 8% and the remaining securities at 4%. SOXX may also hold ADRs, whose cumulative weight in the index is capped at 10%. The fund uses a sampling strategy to track its index, which is reconstituted annually and rebalanced on a quarterly basis. Prior to June 21, 2021, the fund was named iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF and tracked the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$44.51B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 2.24
- Avg volume
- 9.55M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 254.83-655.95
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.