SLV iShares Silver Trust
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on ARCA. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, rising this year inside a falling 0.7418424563356165-year channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 9 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (55% against 56%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 9 months stay as context: falling, −38% a year. A stock can be falling inside a channel that still rises over years; that is what this is, and only one of the two can be the near-term expectation. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$61.64, from the last 9 months. What would overturn this: a close below US$42.41 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months
- US$47.79 – US$61.64 Falling channel, −38% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$42.41 – US$61.69 Rising channel, +28% a year
- Position in that channel
- 76% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -52% from US$105.6129 Jan 2026 → 16 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector3 of 3 Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 13%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 62% of 623 comparable falls came back, typically in 122 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 52% from 105.61 to 50.40 by July 2026, and has regained 13% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 3 of 3 Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Silver Smashes All-Time Highs Near $111 As China's 'Zombie Banks' Spark Metal Rush—Is It Generational Trade Or A Bubble?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 52% here have come back to the old high 62% of the time (623 comparable falls), typically in 122 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 106.98 within 421 days, reached 62% of the time in 623 comparable falls — about 0.20% a day held.
Reported at the time: Silver Smashes All-Time Highs Near $111 As China's 'Zombie Banks' Spark Metal Rush—Is It Generational Trade Or A Bubble? — 26 Jan 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because its projected path only reaches 1.4% above the entry within 90 days, under the 6.0% floor a call has to clear to be worth making. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy at or below
US$47.77
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$50.75
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
6.2%
gross, before costs
Price is at or through our target.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 56%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.