SHEL Shell plc
Shell plc (SHEL) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Energy. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the sell zone, rising on both timeframes
Price has run up to the upper trend line — the level it has repeatedly stalled at.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (42% against 56%). The last 12 months stay as context: rising, +35% a year. The target of US$100.54 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$96.72, from the last 12 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$70.29 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$70.29 – US$97.27 Rising channel, +39% a year
- 12 months
- US$79.80 – US$96.72 Rising channel, +35% a year
- Position in that channel
- 94% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$87.43
level as at 23 Sept 2026
Our target
US$100.54
by 4 Dec 2026
Projected move
15.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 4 touches on the ceiling, 3 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 7 times so far, reaching target 71% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 17% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 15% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 9 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 56% of the time, typically in 72 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 56%
- Fitted
- 12 Sept 2026
About Shell plc
Shell plc, a distinguished energy and petrochemical corporation, is headquartered in London, United Kingdom, and was originally founded in 1907. Known as Royal Dutch Shell plc until its name change in January 2022, the company maintains a formidable global presence, conducting operations across Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, and both North and South America. Its comprehensive business activities are categorized into several key divisions: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions. Shell's core operations involve the exploration for and extraction of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Beyond production, the company is deeply involved in the marketing, transportation, and strategic infrastructure development required to deliver these energy resources to consumers. This includes the manufacturing of gas-to-liquids fuels and a variety of other refined products. Shell also operates a substantial trading arm, dealing in commodities such as natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, electricity, and carbon emission rights. Its refining capabilities convert crude oil and various feedstocks into a wide range of essential products, including gasoline, diesel, aviation and marine fuels, lubricants, bitumen, and sulfur, while also developing low-carbon fuel alternatives. In the chemical sector, Shell is a significant producer of petrochemicals for industrial use, manufacturing base chemicals like ethylene, propylene, and aromatics, alongside intermediate chemicals such as styrene monomer, propylene oxide, and various solvents. The company also manages oil sands assets. Looking to the future of energy, Shell is actively investing in and developing renewable solutions. This includes generating electricity from wind and solar power, pioneering hydrogen production and sales, and establishing a network of electric vehicle charging services. Furthermore, Shell promotes LNG as a viable fuel source for heavy-duty transportation.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- CEO
- Wael Sawan
- Employees
- 84,000
- Country
- GB
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$266.54B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- -0.22
- Avg volume
- 6.76M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 68.625-96.265
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.