RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, going sideways this year inside a rising 1.49612294669584-year channel
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 18 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (49% against 53%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 18 months stay as context: rising, +7% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$328.96, from the last 12 months. What would overturn this: a close below US$298.59 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$297.90 – US$330.18 Rising channel, +7% a year
- Position in that channel
- -147% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -32% from US$359.5628 Aug 2025 → 17 Nov 2025
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 3 Travel Services peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 13%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 90% of 8 comparable falls came back, typically in 43 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in August 2025: price fell 32% from 359.56 to 243.31 by November 2025, and has regained 13% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “$100 Invested In This Stock 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 32% here have come back to the old high 90% of the time (8 comparable falls), typically in 43 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 371.81 within 2150 days, reached 90% of the time in 8 comparable falls — about 0.02% a day held.
Reported at the time: $100 Invested In This Stock 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today — 26 Aug 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because price has broken 12.7% below the channel floor, which is a fall out of the trend rather than a dip within it. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$253.96
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$298.96; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$323.30
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
27.3%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 5
- Fit confidence
- 53%
- Fitted
- 11 Sept 2026
About Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a prominent global operator within the cruise sector. The company manages several well-known cruise lines, such as Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Azamara, and Silversea Cruises. Through these brands, it offers a wide array of voyages that call upon approximately 1,000 different destinations across the globe. As of February 25, 2022, its expansive fleet comprised 61 vessels. Established in 1968, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Miami, Florida.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- CEO
- Jason T. Liberty
- Employees
- 107,975
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$72.07B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.78
- Avg volume
- 2.48M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 232.1-362.79
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.