PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Real Estate. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 10 comparable calls have settled; 80% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 3 years of history we hold: going sideways, drifting +3% a year. The target of US$12.96 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$12.01), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$8.99 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 3 years read from
- US$8.99 – US$12.01 Sideways channel, +3% a year
- Position in that channel
- -6% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -31% from US$12.8116 Jan 2026 → 16 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company1 of 1 REIT - Mortgage peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 2%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 85% of 1176 comparable falls came back, typically in 70 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 31% from 12.81 to 8.89 by September 2026, and has regained 2% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 31% here have come back to the old high 85% of the time (1176 comparable falls), typically in 70 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 12.96 within 68 days, reached 85% of the time in 1176 comparable falls — about 0.66% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (3 years)
- Lower trend line (3 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$8.81
last close · 18 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$8.95; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$12.96
by 25 Nov 2026
Projected move
47.1%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 31% from 12.81 to 8.89 by September 2026, and has regained 2% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 31% here have come back to the old high 85% of the time (1176 comparable falls), typically in 70 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 12.96 within 68 days, reached 85% of the time in 1176 comparable falls — about 0.66% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1176 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 85% were back at the old high within 70 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 10% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 12.81 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 10 settled calls, of which 8 reached target (80%), with an average best move of 5.9%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 7
- Lower line touches
- 7
- Fit confidence
- 40%
- Fitted
- 18 Sept 2026
About PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) functions as a specialized financial firm, concentrating its investments primarily on mortgage-related assets within the United States. The company operates through several key divisions: Its Credit Sensitive Strategies segment channels capital into various instruments, including credit risk transfer (CRT) agreements and securities, distressed loans, real estate holdings, and non-agency subordinated bonds. The Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies segment focuses on investments such as mortgage servicing rights, excess servicing spreads, and both agency and senior non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while also undertaking related interest rate hedging activities. Through its Correspondent Production segment, PMT engages in the acquisition, pooling, and subsequent resale of newly originated prime credit residential loans, either directly or packaged as MBS. The trust is externally managed by PNMAC Capital Management, LLC. For federal income tax purposes, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust qualifies as a real estate investment trust (REIT). This status generally allows it to avoid federal corporate income taxes, provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. PMT was founded in 2009 and has its headquarters situated in Westlake Village, California.
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
- CEO
- David A. Spector
- Employees
- 7
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$827.55M
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.11
- Avg volume
- 1.34M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 9.05-13.81
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.