ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Common Stock
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Common Stock (ORLY) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (78% against 89%). The last 12 months stay as context: falling, −15% a year. The target of US$108.88 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$90.25, from the last 12 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$80.47 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$80.47 – US$91.37 Falling channel, −10% a year
- Position in that channel
- 29% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -23% from US$107.8411 Sept 2025 → 15 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 1 Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 16%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 90% of 971 comparable falls came back, typically in 63 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in September 2025: price fell 23% from 107.84 to 82.73 by July 2026, and has regained 16% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “If You Invested $100 In O'Reilly Automotive Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 23% here have come back to the old high 90% of the time (971 comparable falls), typically in 63 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 108.88 within 340 days, reached 90% of the time in 971 comparable falls — about 0.08% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: If You Invested $100 In O'Reilly Automotive Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today — 11 Sept 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$83.68
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$86.75; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$108.88
by 20 Aug 2027
Projected move
30.1%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in September 2025: price fell 23% from 107.84 to 82.73 by July 2026, and has regained 16% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “If You Invested $100 In O'Reilly Automotive Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 23% here have come back to the old high 90% of the time (971 comparable falls), typically in 63 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 108.88 within 340 days, reached 90% of the time in 971 comparable falls — about 0.08% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 971 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 90% were back at the old high within 63 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 9% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 107.84 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 89%
- Fitted
- 14 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.