NRG NRG Energy, Inc.
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Utilities. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone, falling on both timeframes
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −28% a year. The target of US$187.67 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$130.39), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$107.29 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$107.24 – US$130.39 Falling channel, −28% a year
- Position in that channel
- 0% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -41% from US$182.9024 Feb 2026 → 14 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company1 of 2 Independent Power Producers peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 88% of 6 comparable falls came back, typically in 49 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 41% from 182.90 to 108.78 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Short Seller Jim Chanos Calls Elon Musk's Orbital Datacenter Goals 'AI Snake Oil' — Says Need To See 'Actual' Savings”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 88% of the time (6 comparable falls), typically in 49 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 187.67 within 48 days, reached 88% of the time in 6 comparable falls — about 1.51% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Short Seller Jim Chanos Calls Elon Musk's Orbital Datacenter Goals 'AI Snake Oil' — Says Need To See 'Actual' Savings — 19 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$107.36
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$108.78; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$187.67
by 1 Nov 2026
Projected move
74.8%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 41% from 182.90 to 108.78 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Short Seller Jim Chanos Calls Elon Musk's Orbital Datacenter Goals 'AI Snake Oil' — Says Need To See 'Actual' Savings”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 88% of the time (6 comparable falls), typically in 49 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 187.67 within 48 days, reached 88% of the time in 6 comparable falls — about 1.51% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 6 comparable falls in Independent Power Producers, 88% were back at the old high within 49 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 11% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 182.90 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 8
- Fit confidence
- 71%
- Fitted
- 14 Sept 2026
About NRG Energy, Inc.
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States. Its operations are divided into three main geographical divisions: Texas, East, and West. The company plays a crucial role in generating, distributing, and selling electricity and various related services, serving approximately six million customers across residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale sectors. Their energy generation capabilities are diverse, drawing from natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage technologies. Beyond core power provision, NRG offers an extensive array of solutions, including centralized system power, decentralized generation, renewable energy products, emergency backup power, distributed solar and storage installations, demand-side management, energy efficiency programs, expert advisory services, carbon management initiatives, and bespoke on-site energy solutions. Furthermore, NRG actively engages in the trading of electric power, natural gas, and associated commodities, alongside environmental credits, weather-related products, and various financial instruments such as forwards, futures, options, and swaps. The company also manages fuel procurement and transportation services. It directly markets energy, services, and products to retail consumers through several established brands, including NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, Stream, and XOOM Energy. As of December 31, 2021, NRG Energy's generation assets encompassed approximately 18,000 megawatts of capacity across 25 owned and leased facilities. The corporation was founded in 1989 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Houston, Texas.
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Independent Power Producers
- CEO
- Robert J. Gaudette
- Employees
- 16,702
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$22.66B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.17
- Avg volume
- 2.81M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 105.13-189.96
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.