NIKL Sprott Nickel Miners ETF
Sprott Nickel Miners ETF (NIKL) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling this year inside a rising 1.499353699232623-year channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 18 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (65% against 60%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 18 months stay as context: rising, +47% a year. A stock can be falling inside a channel that still rises over years; that is what this is, and only one of the two can be the near-term expectation. The target of US$20.72 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$14.77, from the last 18 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$12.20 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$12.31 – US$14.77 Rising channel, +47% a year
- Position in that channel
- 60% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -39% from US$20.5426 Jan 2026 → 28 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company15 of 32 Asset Management peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 16%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 60% of 53 comparable falls came back, typically in 68 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 39% from 20.54 to 12.47 by July 2026, and has regained 16% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 39% here have come back to the old high 60% of the time (53 comparable falls), typically in 68 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 20.72 within 285 days, reached 60% of the time in 53 comparable falls — about 0.18% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$13.75
level as at 18 Sept 2026
Our target
US$20.72
by 30 June 2027
Projected move
50.7%
gross, before costs
Price is at or below our buy level.
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 39% from 20.54 to 12.47 by July 2026, and has regained 16% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 39% here have come back to the old high 60% of the time (53 comparable falls), typically in 68 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 20.72 within 285 days, reached 60% of the time in 53 comparable falls — about 0.18% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 53 comparable falls in Asset Management, 60% were back at the old high within 68 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 12% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 20.54 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 60%
- Fitted
- 18 Sept 2026
About Sprott Nickel Miners ETF
NIKL provides pure-play exposure to nickel mining companies. The narrow portfolio typically holds 20 to 35 US and foreign firms that derive at least 50% of their revenue and/or assets from mining, exploration, development, and production of nickel. The fund also includes companies that invest all or a significant portion of their assets in nickel. The initial selection universe is determined using a proprietary selection methodology that may involve industry publications review and fundamental research. Eligible securities that meet the minimum market-cap and liquidity requirements are selected for index inclusion. Each constituent is assigned an intensity score depending on its revenue percentage attributable to nickel. While the index is market cap-weighted, several capping rules are implemented based on the securities initial weights for portfolio diversification. The index is reconstituted and rebalanced semi-annually in June and December.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- CEO
- Justin Werner
- Employees
- 183
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$11.20M
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.25
- Avg volume
- 115.03K
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 12.2-21.855
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.