NFLX Netflix, Inc.
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Communication Services. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 7 comparable calls have settled; 57.1% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
In the sell zone, falling on both timeframes
Price has run up to the upper trend line — the level it has repeatedly stalled at.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −38% a year. The target of US$135.64 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$78.12), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$61.28 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$61.24 – US$78.12 Falling channel, −38% a year
- Position in that channel
- 90% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -50% from US$133.9230 June 2025 → 20 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 3 Entertainment peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 16%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 66% of 687 comparable falls came back, typically in 113 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in June 2025: price fell 50% from 133.92 to 67.58 by July 2026, and has regained 16% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Netflix (NFLX) Stock Hits A New All-Time High: What's Going On?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 50% here have come back to the old high 66% of the time (687 comparable falls), typically in 113 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 135.64 within 325 days, reached 66% of the time in 687 comparable falls — about 0.23% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Netflix (NFLX) Stock Hits A New All-Time High: What's Going On? — 25 June 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$76.41
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$77.94; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$135.64
by 7 Aug 2027
Projected move
77.5%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in June 2025: price fell 50% from 133.92 to 67.58 by July 2026, and has regained 16% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Netflix (NFLX) Stock Hits A New All-Time High: What's Going On?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 50% here have come back to the old high 66% of the time (687 comparable falls), typically in 113 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 135.64 within 325 days, reached 66% of the time in 687 comparable falls — about 0.23% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 687 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 66% were back at the old high within 113 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 16% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 133.92 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 7 settled calls, of which 4 reached target (57.1%), with an average best move of 12.9%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 36%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Netflix, Inc.
Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages. Members can effortlessly stream this content through a variety of internet-connected devices, including smart TVs, digital media players, cable boxes, and mobile phones. Furthermore, the company continues to offer a DVD-by-mail subscription service to its customers in the United States. With roughly 222 million paying subscribers distributed across 190 countries, Netflix was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- CEO
- Theodore A. Sarandos
- Employees
- 16,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- 46/100
- Profitability
- 98/100
- Financial health
- 66/100
- Cash generation
- 53/100
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$316.50B
- Enterprise value
- US$321.71B
- Beta
- 1.53
- Avg volume
- 39.19M
- Revenue per share
- 11.55
- Dividend yield
- 0.00%
- 52-week range
- 65.08-125.345
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- 23.53
- PEG
- 0.69
- Price / sales
- 6.54
- Price / book
- 10.56
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.51
- Gross margin
- 49.12%
- Operating margin
- 29.68%
- Net margin
- 28.22%
- Current ratio
- 1.14
- Quick ratio
- 1.14
- Debt / equity
- 0.47
- Interest cover
- 16.94
Income statement
| Year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$45.18B | US$21.91B | US$13.33B | US$10.98B | US$2.53 |
| 2024 | US$39.00B | US$17.96B | US$10.42B | US$8.71B | US$1.98 |
| 2023 | US$33.72B | US$14.01B | US$6.95B | US$5.41B | US$1.20 |
| 2022 | US$31.62B | US$12.45B | US$5.63B | US$4.49B | US$1.00 |
| 2021 | US$29.70B | US$12.37B | US$6.19B | US$5.12B | US$1.12 |
Balance sheet
| Year | Total assets | Total liabilities | Total equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$55.60B | US$28.98B | US$26.62B |
| 2024 | US$53.63B | US$28.89B | US$24.74B |
| 2023 | US$48.73B | US$28.14B | US$20.59B |
| 2022 | US$48.59B | US$27.82B | US$20.78B |
| 2021 | US$44.58B | US$28.74B | US$15.85B |
Cash flow
| Year | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$10.15B | US$9.46B | US$10.98B |
| 2024 | US$7.36B | US$6.92B | US$8.71B |
| 2023 | US$7.27B | US$6.93B | US$5.41B |
| 2022 | US$2.03B | US$1.62B | US$4.49B |
| 2021 | US$392.61M | -US$131.97M | US$5.12B |
EPS forecasts
| Period | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$2.56 | US$45.10B | 22 |
| 2026 | US$3.60 | US$51.21B | 32 |
| 2027 | US$3.81 | US$57.01B | 34 |
| 2028 | US$4.58 | US$62.86B | 32 |
| 2029 | US$5.46 | US$68.33B | 29 |
| 2030 | US$6.46 | US$73.73B | 15 |
Analyst view
- Target (mean)
- US$91.82
- Target (high)
- US$119.00
- Target (low)
- US$75.00
- Strong buy
- 0
- Buy
- 63
- Hold
- 30
- Sell
- 6
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.