MSFT Microsoft Corporation
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 8 comparable calls have settled; 50% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
In the sell zone, falling on both timeframes
Price has run up to the upper trend line — the level it has repeatedly stalled at.
The next few months are read from the last 11 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (33% against 55%). The last 12 months stay as context: falling, −25% a year. The target of US$544.33 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$509.06, from the last 12 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$250.47 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 11 months read from
- US$250.47 – US$518.41 Falling channel, −16% a year
- Position in that channel
- 92% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -35% from US$539.0129 Oct 2025 → 25 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company4 of 12 Software - Infrastructure peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 74%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 91% of 21 comparable falls came back, typically in 71 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in October 2025: price fell 35% from 539.01 to 352.42 by June 2026, and has regained 74% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Amazon's Cloud Division Faces New AI Competition from Microsoft and Google”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 35% here have come back to the old high 91% of the time (21 comparable falls), typically in 71 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 544.33 within 33 days, reached 91% of the time in 21 comparable falls — about 0.33% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Amazon's Cloud Division Faces New AI Competition from Microsoft and Google — 24 Oct 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (11 months)
- Lower trend line (11 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$490.45
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$544.33
by 20 Oct 2026
Projected move
11.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in October 2025: price fell 35% from 539.01 to 352.42 by June 2026, and has regained 74% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Amazon's Cloud Division Faces New AI Competition from Microsoft and Google”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 35% here have come back to the old high 91% of the time (21 comparable falls), typically in 71 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 544.33 within 33 days, reached 91% of the time in 21 comparable falls — about 0.33% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 21 comparable falls in Software - Infrastructure, 91% were back at the old high within 71 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 12% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 539.01 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 8 settled calls, of which 4 reached target (50%), with an average best move of 6.4%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 55%
- Fitted
- 17 Sept 2026
About Microsoft Corporation
Microsoft Corporation is a prominent global technology firm that invents, markets, and provides ongoing assistance for a diverse range of software, digital services, computing devices, and comprehensive solutions. Its operations are organized into three primary divisions: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment delivers crucial tools for both enterprises and individual users. This includes the extensive Office suite (comprising Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business), along with popular consumer offerings like Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn. It also features Dynamics 365, a suite of integrated cloud and on-premises business applications tailored for organizations. The Intelligent Cloud division focuses on sophisticated infrastructure and platform services. Here, Microsoft licenses key products such as SQL Server, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center, and associated Client Access Licenses. It also includes GitHub, a leading platform for developer collaboration and code hosting; Nuance, offering advanced AI solutions for healthcare and businesses; and Azure, its expansive cloud computing platform. This segment further encompasses enterprise support, Microsoft consulting services, and Nuance professional services, assisting clients with the development, deployment, and management of Microsoft's server and desktop technologies, alongside offering product training and certification. Finally, the More Personal Computing segment covers a broad spectrum of consumer and commercial computing experiences. It generates revenue through Windows operating system licensing, including agreements with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), non-volume licensing, and various Windows Commercial offerings (such as volume licensing and cloud services), as well as patent licensing and Windows Internet of Things (IoT). This division also supplies its own hardware, including Surface devices, PC accessories, and gaming/entertainment consoles. Its Gaming portfolio features Xbox hardware, content, and subscription services, in addition to video games and royalties from third-party titles. Furthermore, it manages search services like Bing and Microsoft's advertising platforms. Microsoft distributes its extensive product line via numerous channels, including original equipment manufacturers, wholesale distributors, and various resellers, complementing direct sales through digital marketplaces, its own online storefronts, and physical retail outlets. The company, established in 1975, maintains its headquarters in Redmond, Washington.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- CEO
- Satya Nadella
- Employees
- 223,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- 39/100
- Profitability
- 100/100
- Financial health
- 70/100
- Cash generation
- 59/100
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$3.64T
- Enterprise value
- US$3.75T
- Beta
- 1.11
- Avg volume
- 35.51M
- Revenue per share
- 44.67
- Dividend yield
- 0.74%
- 52-week range
- 349.2-553.72
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- 27.24
- PEG
- 0.87
- Price / sales
- 10.97
- Price / book
- 8.23
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.06
- Gross margin
- 67.94%
- Operating margin
- 46.78%
- Net margin
- 40.31%
- Current ratio
- 1.23
- Quick ratio
- 1.22
- Debt / equity
- 0.29
- Interest cover
- 50.88
Income statement
| Year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$331.84B | US$225.47B | US$155.24B | US$133.75B | US$17.95 |
| 2025 | US$281.72B | US$193.89B | US$128.53B | US$101.83B | US$13.64 |
| 2024 | US$245.12B | US$171.01B | US$109.43B | US$88.14B | US$11.80 |
| 2023 | US$211.91B | US$146.05B | US$88.52B | US$72.36B | US$9.68 |
| 2022 | US$198.27B | US$135.62B | US$83.38B | US$72.74B | US$9.65 |
Balance sheet
| Year | Total assets | Total liabilities | Total equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$758.38B | US$315.99B | US$442.39B |
| 2025 | US$619.00B | US$275.52B | US$343.48B |
| 2024 | US$512.16B | US$243.69B | US$268.48B |
| 2023 | US$411.98B | US$205.75B | US$206.22B |
| 2022 | US$364.84B | US$198.30B | US$166.54B |
Cash flow
| Year | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$182.94B | US$66.99B | US$133.75B |
| 2025 | US$136.16B | US$71.61B | US$101.83B |
| 2024 | US$118.55B | US$74.07B | US$88.14B |
| 2023 | US$87.58B | US$59.48B | US$72.36B |
| 2022 | US$89.03B | US$65.15B | US$72.74B |
EPS forecasts
| Period | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$17.00 | US$329.47B | 25 |
| 2027 | US$19.73 | US$390.60B | 30 |
| 2028 | US$23.49 | US$466.77B | 29 |
| 2029 | US$28.69 | US$562.41B | 14 |
| 2030 | US$35.15 | US$655.80B | 12 |
| 2031 | US$44.85 | US$869.91B | 7 |
Analyst view
- Target (mean)
- US$553.39
- Target (high)
- US$690.00
- Target (low)
- US$490.00
- Strong buy
- 0
- Buy
- 66
- Hold
- 16
- Sell
- 0
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.