MS Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley (MS) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on BATS. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 9 comparable calls have settled; 88.9% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, rising on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 18 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (56% against 47%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 18 months stay as context: rising, +59% a year. The target of US$236.02 is below the nearest ceiling (US$258.51), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$212.91 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months
- US$217.73 – US$258.65 Rising channel, +59% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$212.91 – US$258.51 Rising channel, +47% a year
- Position in that channel
- -20% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$203.63
last close · 17 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$210.73; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$236.02
by 15 Nov 2026
Projected move
15.9%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 6 touches on the ceiling, 3 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 9 times so far, reaching target 89% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches more than 30% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 12% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 12 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 83% of the time, typically in 42 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 9 settled calls, of which 8 reached target (88.9%), with an average best move of 7.7%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 6
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 47%
- Fitted
- 9 Sept 2026
About Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley operates as a prominent financial holding company, delivering a comprehensive suite of financial solutions and services. Its diverse clientele spans major corporations, governmental bodies, financial institutions, and individual clients across various global regions, including the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The firm's operations are structured into three primary divisions: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. Within the Institutional Securities segment, Morgan Stanley provides crucial capital-raising and strategic financial advisory services. This includes underwriting activities for debt, equity, and other financial instruments, alongside expert counsel on mergers and acquisitions, corporate reorganizations, real estate transactions, and project financing. Furthermore, this division is a key player in sales and trading, offering services like sales execution, financing solutions, prime brokerage, and market-making across equity and fixed-income products, encompassing foreign exchange and commodities. It also extends corporate and commercial real estate loans, furnishes secured lending facilities, supports sales and trading clients with financing, and engages in asset-backed and mortgage lending. Investment and research services, along with specific wealth management offerings, are also part of this segment. The Wealth Management segment caters to individual investors, as well as small to medium-sized enterprises and institutions. It offers a broad spectrum of services, from financial advisor-led and self-directed brokerage and investment guidance to comprehensive financial and wealth planning. This segment also delivers workplace solutions, such as stock plan administration, and provides annuity and insurance products. Lending options include securities-backed loans, residential real estate mortgages, and other credit facilities, complemented by banking and retirement plan services. Finally, the Investment Management segment is dedicated to providing specialized investment products, including equity, fixed income, liquidity, and alternative strategies. These offerings are distributed through institutional and intermediary channels to a sophisticated client base that features benefit and defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, governmental entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and corporate and third-party fund sponsors. Morgan Stanley's origins trace back to its founding in 1924, and its global headquarters are situated in New York, New York.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Financial - Capital Markets
- CEO
- Edward N. Pick
- Employees
- 83,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$343.25B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.21
- Avg volume
- 5.78M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 141.03-232.25
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.