MCO Moody's Corporation
Moody's Corporation (MCO) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, going sideways this year inside a rising 0.7439824199010654-year channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (49% against 71%). The last 12 months stay as context: going sideways, −2% a year. The target of US$506.69 is below the nearest ceiling (US$515.24), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$451.32 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$451.32 – US$515.24 Rising channel, +8% a year
- Position in that channel
- 22% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -24% from US$535.4316 Jan 2026 → 11 Feb 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company1 of 4 Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 46%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 89% of 990 comparable falls came back, typically in 64 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 24% from 535.43 to 409.43 by February 2026, and has regained 46% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Daiwa Capital Upgrades Moodys to Outperform, Raises Price Target to $590”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 24% here have come back to the old high 89% of the time (990 comparable falls), typically in 64 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 540.61 within 277 days, reached 89% of the time in 990 comparable falls — about 0.06% a day held.
Reported at the time: Daiwa Capital Upgrades Moodys to Outperform, Raises Price Target to $590 — 13 Jan 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$465.40
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$478.01; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$506.69
by 12 Oct 2026
Projected move
8.9%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 3 touches on the ceiling, 3 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 11 times so far, reaching target 73% of the time. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 7% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 6% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 11 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 91% of the time, typically in 26 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 71%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Moody's Corporation
Moody's Corporation operates as a global leader in risk assessment, divided into two main segments: Moody's Investors Service and Moody's Analytics. Moody's Investors Service is dedicated to issuing credit ratings and providing detailed assessments for a diverse range of debt obligations and the entities that issue them. This encompasses corporate, financial institution, governmental, and structured finance securities across approximately 140 nations. These ratings are made publicly available through press releases, digital media, and real-time financial information systems. Its vast scope includes ratings for thousands of non-financial corporations, financial institutions, public finance issuers, sovereign and sub-sovereign governments, supranational bodies, infrastructure projects, and structured finance deals. The Moody's Analytics segment develops and provides a comprehensive suite of products and services designed to support the risk management needs of institutional participants in financial markets. This includes subscription-based research, data, and analytical tools such as credit ratings, quantitative credit scores, economic forecasts, business intelligence, commercial real estate data, and specialized training and certification programs. Additionally, this segment offers offshore analytical and research services, along with advanced software solutions for risk management. Originally founded in 1900 and headquartered in New York, New York, the company was known as Dun and Bradstreet Company before officially becoming Moody's Corporation in September 2000.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
- CEO
- Robert Scott Fauber
- Employees
- 16,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$82.29B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.33
- Avg volume
- 913.40K
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 402.28-546.88
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.