ITUB Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the sell zone, rising this year inside a going sideways 0.7425550543822932-year channel
Price has run up to the upper trend line — the level it has repeatedly stalled at.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (64% against 82%). The last 12 months stay as context: rising, +23% a year. Price is above both fitted ceilings, so there is no line overhead to break — and no fitted resistance to price the target against either. What would overturn this: a close below US$7.07 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$7.07 – US$8.19 Sideways channel, −1% a year
- Position in that channel
- 109% above the ceiling of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -24% from US$9.4311 Feb 2026 → 20 Aug 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 48%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 89% of 993 comparable falls came back, typically in 64 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 24% from 9.43 to 7.19 by August 2026, and has regained 48% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 24% here have come back to the old high 89% of the time (993 comparable falls), typically in 64 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 9.52 within 37 days, reached 89% of the time in 993 comparable falls — about 0.42% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$8.26
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$9.52
by 23 Oct 2026
Projected move
15.4%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 24% from 9.43 to 7.19 by August 2026, and has regained 48% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 24% here have come back to the old high 89% of the time (993 comparable falls), typically in 64 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 9.52 within 37 days, reached 89% of the time in 993 comparable falls — about 0.42% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 993 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 89% were back at the old high within 64 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 9% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 9.43 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 82%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. delivers a broad spectrum of financial and insurance solutions to both individual and corporate clientele, operating within Brazil and internationally. The company organizes its activities across three primary divisions: Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, and Activities with the Market and Corporation. Its extensive service portfolio encompasses various deposit instruments, lending products such as loans and credit cards, specialized investment and commercial banking, real estate financing, general financing and investment management, leasing, and foreign exchange services. Additionally, Itaú Unibanco is a prominent insurer, offering property and casualty coverage for losses, damages, or liabilities pertaining to assets and individuals, along with life insurance for death and personal accidents, and reinsurance. Its diverse customer base includes retail consumers (both account and non-account holders), private individuals and legal entities, high-net-worth clients, and micro to small enterprises. Established in 1924 and headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, the firm adopted its current name, Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A., in April 2009, having previously been known as Itaú Unibanco Banco Múltiplo S.A. It functions as a subsidiary of IUPAR - Itaú Unibanco Participações S.A.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Banks
- CEO
- Milton Maluhy Filho
- Employees
- 99,600
- Country
- BR
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$83.87B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.16
- Avg volume
- 22.00M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 6.54369-9.6
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.