GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on ARCA. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken out above, rising on both timeframes
Price has closed above the channel. The fitted trend may no longer describe this stock.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +17% a year. Price is above both fitted ceilings, so there is no line overhead to break — and no fitted resistance to price the target against either. What would overturn this: a close below US$66.03 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$66.00 – US$72.22 Rising channel, +17% a year
- Position in that channel
- 423% above the ceiling of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -39% from US$115.8627 Feb 2026 → 20 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company14 of 31 Asset Management peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 52%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 63% of 52 comparable falls came back, typically in 67 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 39% from 115.86 to 70.75 by July 2026, and has regained 52% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Gold's Strength Reflects Structural Risk, Not Speculation, Study”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 39% here have come back to the old high 63% of the time (52 comparable falls), typically in 67 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 116.79 within 56 days, reached 63% of the time in 52 comparable falls — about 0.43% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Gold's Strength Reflects Structural Risk, Not Speculation, Study — 27 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$92.60
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$94.12; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$116.79
by 11 Nov 2026
Projected move
26.1%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 39% from 115.86 to 70.75 by July 2026, and has regained 52% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Gold's Strength Reflects Structural Risk, Not Speculation, Study”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 39% here have come back to the old high 63% of the time (52 comparable falls), typically in 67 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 116.79 within 56 days, reached 63% of the time in 52 comparable falls — about 0.43% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 52 comparable falls in Asset Management, 63% were back at the old high within 67 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 12% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 115.86 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 61%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About VanEck Gold Miners ETF
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) aims to closely track the total return of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (MVGDXTR), mirroring both its price changes and any income generated. This objective is pursued prior to the deduction of any fees or operational expenses. The MVGDXTR index itself serves as a benchmark for the collective performance of companies engaged in the worldwide gold mining industry.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Country
- US
https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/gold-miners-etf-gdx/
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$29.75B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.81
- Avg volume
- 22.90M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 67.26-117.18
- Exchange
- AMEX
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
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- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.