ECL Ecolab Inc.
Ecolab Inc. (ECL) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Basic Materials. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 9 months of history we hold: going sideways, drifting +2% a year. The target of US$309.35 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$297.42), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$284.82 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$284.82 – US$297.42 Sideways channel, +2% a year
- Position in that channel
- -85% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -20% from US$306.6227 Feb 2026 → 19 May 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company1 of 2 Chemicals - Specialty peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 45%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 91% of 839 comparable falls came back, typically in 61 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 20% from 306.62 to 245.00 by May 2026, and has regained 45% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Ecolab Files Prospectus For Offering Mixed Shelf; Terms Undisclosed”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 20% here have come back to the old high 91% of the time (839 comparable falls), typically in 61 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 309.35 within 161 days, reached 91% of the time in 839 comparable falls — about 0.08% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Ecolab Files Prospectus For Offering Mixed Shelf; Terms Undisclosed — 23 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$272.56
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$309.35
by 24 Feb 2027
Projected move
13.5%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 20% from 306.62 to 245.00 by May 2026, and has regained 45% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Ecolab Files Prospectus For Offering Mixed Shelf; Terms Undisclosed”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 20% here have come back to the old high 91% of the time (839 comparable falls), typically in 61 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 309.35 within 161 days, reached 91% of the time in 839 comparable falls — about 0.08% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 839 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 91% were back at the old high within 61 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 8% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 306.62 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 77%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Ecolab Inc.
Ecolab Inc. provides water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences. The Global Water segment offers water treatment and process applications, and cleaning and sanitizing solutions to manufacturing, food and beverage processing, transportation, chemical, primary metals and mining, power generation, global refining, petrochemical, pulp and paper industries. The Global Institutional & Specialty segment provides cleaning and sanitizing products to the foodservice, healthcare, hospitality, lodging, government, education and retail industries. The Global Pest Elimination segment provides pest elimination services to detect, prevent, and eliminate pests comprising rodents and insects in full-service and quick-service restaurants, food and beverage processors, hotels, grocery operations, and other commercial segments, including education, life sciences, and healthcare. The Global Life Sciences segment provides cleaning and contamination control solutions to pharmaceutical and personal care manufacturers. It offers its products under the Ecolab, Kay, Purolite, and Bioquell brand names. The company sells its products through field sales and corporate account personnel, distributors, and dealers. Ecolab Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Chemicals - Specialty
- CEO
- Christophe Beck
- Employees
- 48,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$78.60B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.89
- Avg volume
- 1.54M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 243.15-309.27
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.