CCL Carnival Corporation & plc
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on UNKNOWN. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, falling on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 7 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (58% against 67%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 7 months stay as context: falling, −15% a year. The target of US$33.82 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$28.90, from the last 7 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$25.73 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 7 months read from
- US$25.75 – US$28.90 Falling channel, −15% a year
- Position in that channel
- -95% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -34% from US$33.436 Feb 2026 → 14 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 3 Travel Services peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 3%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 89% of 7 comparable falls came back, typically in 42 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 34% from 33.43 to 22.20 by September 2026, and has regained 3% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “A Look Into Carnival Inc's Price Over Earnings”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 34% here have come back to the old high 89% of the time (7 comparable falls), typically in 42 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 33.82 within 97 days, reached 89% of the time in 7 comparable falls — about 0.52% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: A Look Into Carnival Inc's Price Over Earnings — 2 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (7 months)
- Lower trend line (7 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$22.35
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$22.51; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$33.82
by 22 Dec 2026
Projected move
51.3%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 34% from 33.43 to 22.20 by September 2026, and has regained 3% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “A Look Into Carnival Inc's Price Over Earnings”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 34% here have come back to the old high 89% of the time (7 comparable falls), typically in 42 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 33.82 within 97 days, reached 89% of the time in 7 comparable falls — about 0.52% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 7 comparable falls in Travel Services, 89% were back at the old high within 42 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 6% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 33.43 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 67%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Carnival Corporation & plc
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a prominent global entity in the leisure travel sector. Its extensive fleet of vessels navigates to nearly 700 different ports globally, sailing under a diverse portfolio of acclaimed brands such as Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard. Beyond its core cruise operations, the company also provides port services and other related offerings. Its holdings include and it manages hotels, lodges, unique glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. Customers primarily book their cruises through a network of travel agencies, tour operators, vacation planners, and direct online channels. The corporation maintains a broad international presence, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and other global markets. It commands a significant fleet of 87 ships, collectively providing capacity for 223,000 passengers in lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was established in 1972 and has its headquarters situated in Miami, Florida.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- CEO
- Joshua Ian Weinstein
- Employees
- 160,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- 91/100
- Profitability
- 57/100
- Financial health
- 13/100
- Cash generation
- 86/100
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$31.16B
- Enterprise value
- US$55.09B
- Beta
- 2.31
- Avg volume
- 23.15M
- Revenue per share
- 19.76
- Dividend yield
- 1.98%
- 52-week range
- 22.28-34.03
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- 9.85
- PEG
- 0.47
- Price / sales
- 1.14
- Price / book
- 2.42
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.70
- Gross margin
- 34.43%
- Operating margin
- 16.34%
- Net margin
- 11.24%
- Current ratio
- 0.33
- Quick ratio
- 0.29
- Debt / equity
- 2.02
- Interest cover
- 3.76
Income statement
| Year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$26.62B | US$7.88B | US$4.48B | US$2.76B | US$2.02 |
| 2024 | US$25.02B | US$9.38B | US$3.57B | US$1.92B | US$1.44 |
| 2023 | US$21.59B | US$7.28B | US$1.96B | -US$74.00M | -US$0.06 |
| 2022 | US$12.17B | US$412.00M | -US$4.38B | -US$6.09B | -US$5.16 |
| 2021 | US$1.91B | -US$2.75B | -US$7.09B | -US$9.50B | -US$8.46 |
Balance sheet
| Year | Total assets | Total liabilities | Total equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$51.69B | US$39.40B | US$12.28B |
| 2024 | US$49.06B | US$39.81B | US$9.25B |
| 2023 | US$49.12B | US$42.24B | US$6.88B |
| 2022 | US$51.70B | US$44.64B | US$7.06B |
| 2021 | US$53.34B | US$41.20B | US$12.14B |
Cash flow
| Year | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$6.22B | US$2.61B | US$2.76B |
| 2024 | US$5.92B | US$1.30B | US$1.92B |
| 2023 | US$4.28B | US$997.00M | -US$74.00M |
| 2022 | -US$1.67B | -US$6.61B | -US$6.09B |
| 2021 | -US$4.11B | -US$7.72B | -US$9.50B |
EPS forecasts
| Period | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$2.15 | US$26.65B | 16 |
| 2026 | US$2.24 | US$27.62B | 14 |
| 2027 | US$2.64 | US$28.60B | 17 |
| 2028 | US$3.10 | US$29.83B | 9 |
| 2029 | US$3.49 | US$30.82B | 7 |
| 2030 | US$3.45 | US$31.59B | 3 |
Analyst view
- Target (mean)
- US$35.80
- Target (high)
- US$42.00
- Target (low)
- US$30.00
- Strong buy
- 0
- Buy
- 28
- Hold
- 17
- Sell
- 2
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.