AXTI AXT, Inc.
AXT, Inc. (AXTI) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone, rising on both timeframes
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: rising, drifting more than +100% a year. The target of US$63.72 is below the nearest ceiling (US$609.66), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$46.27 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$46.35 – US$612.83 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- 3% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -74% from US$140.8522 May 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company9 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 25%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 62% of 27 comparable falls came back, typically in 238 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in May 2026: price fell 74% from 140.84 to 36.94 by July 2026, and has regained 25% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 74% here have come back to the old high 62% of the time (27 comparable falls), typically in 238 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 144.13 within 188 days, reached 62% of the time in 27 comparable falls — about 0.68% a day held.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$56.89
level as at 17 Nov 2026
Our target
US$63.72
by 24 Nov 2026
Projected move
12.0%
gross, before costs
Price is at or through our target.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 3 touches on the ceiling, 2 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 3 times so far, reaching target 100% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches more than 30% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 12% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over 146 stretches of this stock’s own history, since the published entry itself is too rare here to size a target from, reached 75% of the time, typically in 7 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 75%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About AXT, Inc.
AXT, Inc. is a company dedicated to the design, development, production, and worldwide distribution of both compound and single-element semiconductor substrates. Leveraging its proprietary vertical gradient freeze technology, the firm manufactures these essential components. Its diverse product range includes indium phosphide substrates, vital for applications like data center connectivity (utilizing light and lasers), 5G communications, fiber optic lasers and detectors, passive optical networks, silicon photonics, photonic integrated circuits, terrestrial solar cells, RF amplification and switching, infrared LEDs for motion control, LiDAR in robotics and autonomous vehicles, and infrared thermal imaging. AXT also provides semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs) substrates, which are critical for Wi-Fi and IoT devices, transistors, direct broadcast television, power amplifiers, satellite communications, and solar cells. Furthermore, its semi-conducting GaAs substrates find use in LEDs, screen displays, printer head lasers and LEDs, 3D sensing via VCSELs, data center communication using VCSELs, sensors for industrial robotics and near-infrared applications, optical couplers, solar cells, night vision goggles, LiDAR for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and various other laser technologies such as machining, cutting, and drilling. Germanium substrates are another key offering, employed in multi-junction solar cells for satellites, optical sensors and detectors, terrestrial concentrated photovoltaic cells, infrared detectors, and as carrier wafers for LEDs. Beyond these substrates, AXT supplies high-purity materials including 6N+ and 7N+ purified gallium, boron trioxide, gallium-magnesium alloy, along with pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles and pBN insulating parts. The company distributes its products via a direct salesforce in the United States, China, and Europe, alongside independent sales representatives and distributors across Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and other international markets. Established in 1986 as American Xtal Technology, Inc., the company rebranded to AXT, Inc. in July 2000 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Morris S. Young
- Employees
- 1,541
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$2.90B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.92
- Avg volume
- 10.04M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 3.7-143.16
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.