ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Defensive. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, rising on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 2 years: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (85% against 68%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 2 years stay as context: rising, +40% a year. The target of US$95.48 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$92.85, from the last 2 years), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$78.92 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years
- US$78.73 – US$92.85 Rising channel, +40% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$78.92 – US$103.12 Rising channel, +55% a year
- Position in that channel
- 25% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$79.57
level as at 1 Oct 2026
Our target
US$95.48
by 11 Nov 2026
Projected move
20.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 5 touches on the ceiling, 9 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 7 times so far, reaching target 71% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 23% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 20% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 8 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 50% of the time, typically in 40 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 5
- Lower line touches
- 9
- Fit confidence
- 68%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Its expansive operations span numerous countries, including pivotal markets such as the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, alongside a broader international presence. ADM's business is strategically organized into three core divisions: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The company's foundational activities involve acquiring, storing, cleaning, and distributing various agricultural raw materials, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. Beyond raw material handling, ADM is actively engaged in the global import, export, and distribution of agricultural commodities and feed products, complemented by specialized structured trade finance services. The company's product portfolio is incredibly diverse, serving the food, animal feed, energy, and industrial sectors. Offerings include a comprehensive range of vegetable oils—from crude and partially refined versions (utilized in biodiesel production and industrial applications like chemicals and paints) to salad oils, margarine, and shortening—as well as protein meals. ADM also manufactures a broad selection of sweeteners (such as syrup, glucose, and dextrose), corn and wheat starches, wheat flour, various alcohols (including ethyl alcohol and ethanol), citric acids, corn gluten feed and meal, and distillers' grains. Additionally, it processes specific agricultural products like peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp. Furthermore, ADM develops and supplies an extensive suite of specialized ingredients and solutions for nutrition and health. This segment features natural flavors, sophisticated flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fibers, polyols, hydrocolloids, and an advanced line of natural health and nutrition products, encompassing probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts. They also provide edible beans, formulated animal feeds, animal health and nutrition products, and offer contract and private label manufacturing for pet treats and foods. Beyond its core commodity and ingredient businesses, ADM functions as a futures commission merchant, delivering commodity brokerage services. It also manages cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses and allocates cash as security for certain insurance agreements. Established in 1902, the company's corporate headquarters are located in Chicago, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Agricultural Farm Products
- CEO
- Juan Ricardo Luciano
- Employees
- 41,147
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$40.73B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.61
- Avg volume
- 3.79M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 55.58-88.46
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.